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Latest US Treasury Yield Curve, Rates, and Modified Durations

Current Treasury yield curve rates as of October 30th, 2025. Data sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and represents the par yield curve for Treasury securities.

Current (Oct 30, 2025)
1 Year Ago (Nov 13, 2024)
MaturityTypeYield (%)Modified DurationDV01 per $1MM
1 MonthBill4.20%0.1 years$8
1 YearNote3.70%1.0 years$97
2 YearNote3.61%1.9 years$191
3 YearNote3.61%2.8 years$282
5 YearNote3.72%4.5 years$452
7 YearNote3.90%6.1 years$607
10 YearNote4.11%8.1 years$813
20 YearBond4.64%12.9 years$1,294
30 YearBond4.65%16.1 years$1,609

Investment Metrics ($1MM Notional Par Bond)

Practical investment metrics for Treasury notes and bonds, showing estimated coupon income, curve roll income, total return, and mark to market loss if yields rise by 1% and bond is sold over the next year for a $1MM notional par bond (bond coupon = current yield) of each maturity.

MaturityTypeCoupon IncomeCurve RollTotal ReturnLoss if yields rise 1%
1 YearNote$37,000$-417$36,583$-9,729
2 YearNote$36,100$-876$35,224$-19,129
3 YearNote$36,100$-0$36,100$-28,192
5 YearNote$37,200$2,029$39,229$-45,244
7 YearNote$39,000$4,787$43,787$-60,745
10 YearNote$41,100$5,238$46,338$-81,325
20 YearBond$46,400$6,673$53,073$-129,406
30 YearBond$46,500$158$46,658$-160,898

Same table in % (i.e., all values in table above divided by $1MM):

MaturityTypeCoupon IncomeCurve RollTotal ReturnLoss if yields rise 1%
1 YearNote3.70%-0.04%3.66%-0.97%
2 YearNote3.61%-0.09%3.52%-1.91%
3 YearNote3.61%0.00%3.61%-2.82%
5 YearNote3.72%0.20%3.92%-4.52%
7 YearNote3.90%0.48%4.38%-6.07%
10 YearNote4.11%0.52%4.63%-8.13%
20 YearBond4.64%0.67%5.31%-12.94%
30 YearBond4.65%0.02%4.67%-16.09%

Investment Metrics Methodology

Coupon Income: Annual coupon income based on current yield assuming par bond (current yield = coupon rate).

Curve Roll: Price change due to the bond 'rolling down' the yield curve as it approaches maturity. Calculated as the P&L from the yield change (current yield vs. yield at maturity-1 year) using the future duration.

Total Return: Sum of coupon income and curve roll components.

Loss if yields rise 1%: Estimated mark to market loss for a 100 basis point parallel rise in yields using DV01. This would be the loss incurred if you sold the bond after 1 year and yields had risen 1% from when you bought it.

Note: These are simplified estimates for educational purposes. Actual investment performance depends on many factors including yield curve changes, credit spreads, and market conditions.

Methodology Note

Duration Calculations: The modified durations shown are indicative and calculated using discount rates derived from the Treasury par yield curve itself. This approach provides a simplified but useful approximation for duration analysis.

Industry Standard: In practice, many institutional investors use SOFR swap curves for more precise duration calculations, as these better reflect the true cost of funding and hedging. The durations shown here should be considered as estimates for general analysis purposes.

DV01 Calculator

Calculate the dollar value of a 1 basis point (0.01%) change in interest rates for your Treasury bond holdings (DV01).

Note: DV01 calculations are indicative and based on Treasury curve discount rates. For institutional use, SOFR swap curves provide more precise duration analysis.

Understanding Treasury Securities

The US Treasury market is the largest and most liquid bond market in the world. Treasury securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, making them among the safest investments available.

Treasury Bills (T-Bills)

Treasury bills are short-term securities with maturities of 4, 8, 13, 26, and 52 weeks. They are sold at a discount to face value and do not pay periodic interest. The difference between the purchase price and face value represents the interest earned.

Treasury Notes

Treasury notes are medium-term securities with maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. They pay interest every six months and are issued at face value. Notes are popular among individual and institutional investors for their balance of yield and safety.

Treasury Bonds

Treasury bonds are long-term securities with maturities of 20 and 30 years. Like notes, they pay interest every six months and are issued at face value. Bonds are used by investors seeking long-term income and by institutions managing long-term liabilities.

Understanding Modified Duration

Modified duration measures the sensitivity of a bond's price to changes in interest rates. It represents the percentage change in bond price for a 1% change in yield. Higher duration means greater price sensitivity to interest rate changes.

Understanding DV01 (Dollar Value of an 01)

DV01 measures the dollar change in a bond's price for a 1 basis point (0.01%) change in yield. It's calculated as:

DV01 = Modified Duration × Bond Market Value × 0.0001

Bond Market Value = Bond Face Value × Price

DV01 is particularly useful for:

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why do Treasury yields change daily?

A: Treasury yields fluctuate based on market expectations for inflation, economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and global demand for US government debt. They reflect the market's assessment of future economic conditions.

Q: What causes an inverted yield curve?

A: An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term rates exceed long-term rates. This often happens when the Federal Reserve raises short-term rates to combat inflation while markets expect slower economic growth in the future.

Q: How do I use duration in my investment decisions?

A: Duration helps you understand interest rate risk. If you expect rates to rise, consider shorter-duration securities. If you expect rates to fall, longer-duration securities may provide better returns. However, always consider your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

Q: What's the difference between yield and coupon rate?

A: The coupon rate is the fixed interest rate paid on the bond's face value. The yield (yield to maturity) is the total return you'll earn if you hold the bond until maturity, accounting for the current market price and all future cash flows.

Q: Are Treasury securities completely risk-free?

A: While Treasury securities have no credit risk (default risk), they still have interest rate risk. If you need to sell before maturity and rates have risen, you may experience a loss. However, if held to maturity, you'll receive the full face value plus all coupon payments.

Q: What is convexity and why does it arise in bond pricing?

A: Convexity is the non-linear relationship between bond prices and interest rates. It arises because duration itself changes as interest rates change - when rates fall, duration increases (making bonds more sensitive to further rate changes), and when rates rise, duration decreases (making bonds less sensitive to further rate changes). This creates a 'convex' price-yield relationship where bond prices rise more for a given rate decrease than they fall for the same rate increase.

Challenge: Use the DV01 calculator above with any bond parameters and observe that the 'Market Value Change for 1% increase' (when rates rise) is smaller in magnitude than the 'Market Value Change for 1% decrease' (when rates fall). This asymmetry demonstrates convexity in action - bonds benefit more from rate decreases than they suffer from equivalent rate increases.

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